alt.energy.renewable

"Roland Mösl" wrote in message news:7d3cd$47cf8757$557fe8ca$22976@news.inode.at...
> schrieb im Newsbeitrag
> news:0da45e1d-bed4-486d-846f-c2d52d91c8a2@e23g2000prf.googlegroups.com...
>> New study says ethanol from cellulose not likely affordable - ever!
>
> This study is a nonsens.
>
> This study goes with small increases of oil price
> This study goes with ICE cars only
> This study is crap.
>
> Look on the oil price, $104,30 highest ever.
>
> Look on the peak oil study of the energy watch group.
>
> When oil demand is in 2018 at 103 million barrel a day,
> oil delivery at 63, this 40 million barrel gap can only
> be filled in 2 ways: $300 oil price or a huge effort to
> built a huge photovoltaic world producition

I agree that $300 oil will be here sooner than most people think.
Not sure if that will be because of a collapsing dollar or because of the reduced availability of oil in the future.
People will get creative with that. They always do.

But I fail to see why you pull PV into this story, and even promote it as the one and only alternative.
PV and oil/alternative fuel have very little to do with each other. PV is generating electricity, oil goes mainly to automotive
fuels.
The only spot where they have overlap is for the charging of batteries for plug-in hybrids and electrical vehicles.
And that does not happen very often yet, because of a gezillion reasons, mostly because batteries as such a poor energy container.

Even if the battery problem is solved, there are many more obstacles for PV.
For example, for home cooling, PV sounds like the perfect choice : If the sun shines you want your AC to run.
So why is half the world (around the equator) not plastered with PV panels ?
Because bulk electricity production NOT using PV is still so much cheaper than using PV.

And it will remain so for a long time, because there are so many alternatives for electricity generation : coal, natural gas,
nuclear, wind, geothermal, biomass burning, hydro, solar-thermal and of course the best one of them all : increased energy
efficiency. All these create more energy per dollar than PV.

Even with the steep subsidies on PV panels, 1-million solar roof initialives and lots of talk about improving efficiencies and
lowered cost, so far, after more than 10 years of PV, it is barely making a dent in electricity production and stands at $4/Watt
installed (as opposed to $1/Watt for nuclear). Even (little-advertised) geothermal power produces more energy than PV if I'm not
mistaken. A few GW is all it produces worldwide, and that only if the sun is shining. We need 15,000 GW. PV may be nice for charging
batteries while on vacation, but as a massive energy-generation scheme so far it failed and continues to fail terribly.

How about them apples ?

Rob